Showing posts with label Politics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Politics. Show all posts

Who is Being Naive?

I watched The Godfather again the other night, and I have to say I have a new favorite scene.  
Michael: "My father is no different than any powerful man, any man with power, like a President or senator."
Kay: "Do you know how naive you sound, Michael? Presidents and senators don't have men killed!"
Michael Corleone: "Oh. Who's being naive, Kay?"

Marble Wall Coverings

I've been in the homes of some pretty wealthy people.  They weren't billionaires by any means, but they are well off.  I have seen enormous rooms with unnecessarily high ceilings and televisions bordering on the absurd.  I have been in swanky, downtown office buildings of hugely profitable companies.  I've seen some nice amenities is what I'm trying to say.  Today I was in the county Marriage License Bureau - the epicenter of the mundane - and the room was covered in marble from floor to ceiling.  This led me to develop what I am going to call the Marble Law of Finance:
Nobody covers a wall with marble using their own money.  
This is a helpful realization.  If I am ever abducted by aliens, wake up on a marble floor and look up to see marble walls, I'll know I'm in one of their government buildings.

Robots and the Non Aggression Principle

Robots and the Non Agression Principle
It seems that any science fiction involving sufficiently advanced robots usually includes some element of struggle between them and their human creators.  Is this just a useful plot device, or is their really an inherent danger in creating powerful, rugged, autonomous beings?  Perhaps the behavioral framework within which we have been considering robots is flawed.  Maybe the solution would be treating robots the same way we treat humans (or at least the way we ought to).  Consider the most well-known rules for programming well behaved robots. 

Isaac Asimov defined the Three Laws of Robotics as follows:
  1. A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.
  2. A robot must obey the orders given to it by human beings, except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.
  3. A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Laws.
Those seem like pretty good laws, right?  They're pretty airtight.  But, what if we tried something a little bit different?  What if we paused for a moment and decided to program our robots to obey the Non-aggression Principle, the axiom that one shall not initiate the use of force against other persons or their property.  This is a fundamentally different way of treating robots that transcends Asimov's master/slave-relationship-based rules.

I think this is great fodder for any budding libertarian-sympathizing science fiction writers out there.  What would be different? What are the potential pitfalls, and what are the potential benefits of programing robots to be actually autonomous?  Not just autonomous slaves, but nonviolent, nonsubservient, synthetic beings.  Why can't the rules that govern human action also govern the action of artificially intelligent beings? 

The Mothering Effect of Government Regulation

The Case for Regulation

On the surface, government regulation provides a much needed service to our uncertain world and protects us from rampant subjugation to the whims of our neighbors.  It is such a compelling and simple concept that I have a great deal of empathy for those who believe it to be true.  Many of my fellow travelers in the quest for greater individual freedom hold the position that, of course, we need some minimal level of regulation from government.  Who could be so extreme, callous and ignorant to propose that we should have none?

Me for one.

When I was growing up, my mother made us do chores.  I'm glad she did because when I struck out on my own I knew how to cook, sweep the floors, do the laundry and clean the toilet.  I had the skills and the compulsion to keep a clean kitchen and an orderly bedroom.  But when I pause to think about the quality of the work I did as a child and contrast it to that which I do in my own house, I am embarrassed.  Now I was a well-behaved child, but I did the bare minimum I could get by with less I disappoint dear mother.  My style of cleaning in those days could well be described as "hitting the high spots."  I never moved chairs to sweep beneath them.  I rarely took the items off of the bathroom sink to wipe it down.  I mastered the art of pushing them back, wiping and pulling them forward, thus creating an illusion akin to sweeping dust under a rug, which I was also not above.

Comparatively, I am a cleaning Nazi when it comes to my own house - think rigid discipline and rampant germicide. 

Why the disparity?  What drives us to literally and figuratively sweep things under the rug in certain conditions and not others?

Ownership and Responsibility  

The difference now is that I own the house I live in and thus have an internal drive to keep it neat and orderly.  Even when I rented an apartment, the effect of being the sole person responsible for housekeeping created an immediate shift in my behavior.  I knew that if I did not keep my place in order it would directly effect how I felt about myself, and perhaps just as important, how visitors felt about me. 

Granted, in the case of industry in the market there is still the effect of ownership and responsibility to one's customers.   But consider for a moment the effects of a paternalistic regulatory apparatus on the goals of an organization.  The confines of regulation are inherently slow to change and rarely focused entirely on the safety and satisfaction of the consumer or the public at large.  They are necessarily driven in large part by political forces and are usually subject to the powerful influence of relatively small interest groups.  Besides these effects they shift the focus of industry in part away from satisfying customers, which includes an interest in their safety, on to the particular guidelines provided by regulatory bodies.  This provides industry with the perverse objective to dot the i's and cross the t's provided by regulation and then, if they run afoul of public safety, to blame the shortsightedness of the regulatory body which has claimed ownership and responsibility for an orderly society. 

Just Think About the Average

It's not every day that you run into expositions on mistaken aggregation in popular culture.  Maybe you aren't as big of a Rush fan as I am, so you might think that their lyrics from 1976 do not constitute 'popular culture.'  Let's just assume you are wrong and carry on.  In case you are not familiar with this epic piece (I really mean epic, not in the overly broad sense it has come to mean in our vernacular.  The song runs just over 20 minutes.),  I will poach a portion of the synopsis from the wikipedia page for the 2112 album:
In the year 2062, a galaxy-wide war results in the union of all planets under the rule of the Red Star of the Solar Federation. By 2112, the world is controlled by the "Priests of the Temples of Syrinx," who determine the content of all reading matter, songs, pictures - every facet of life. A man discovers an ancient guitar and learns to play his own music. Thinking he has made a wonderful discovery that will be a boon to humanity, he goes to present the guitar to the priests of the Temples, who angrily destroy it and rebuke him for unearthing one of the "silly whims" that caused the collapse of the previous civilization.
The section I would like to focus on is the main character's meeting with the priests.  After the priests deliver their initial rebuke, he says in absolute confusion and dismay:
I can't believe you're saying
These things just can't be true
Our world could use this beauty
Just think what we might do
Listen to my music
And hear what it can do
There's something here as strong as life
I know that it will reach you
To which the priests angrily reply (italics mine):
Don't annoy us further!
We have our work to do
Just think about the average
What use have they for you?

Another toy will help destroy
The elder race of man
Forget about your silly whim
It doesn't fit the Plan!
Picture the central planners of today and think of their conceit in reference to the priests.   There is no average, no class of averages, no average person or average family that can enjoy the beauty of music or will miss its absence.  These are actions and passions of individuals that cannot be summed, divided or averaged.  It is true that this wonderful new discovery doesn't fit the plan, because the goal of the plan is to maximize something that doesn't exist - average happiness.

Ascending Into Anarchy and Order

You always hear, in history and in fiction, about society "descending into anarchy and chaos" following the demise of some government or empire.  This is the premise behind Asimov's Foundation Trilogy so loved by Paul Krugman.  In summary, the ever present goal of generations of characters within the books is to restore the grandeur of the now fallen Galactic Empire and establish a second so that order, progress and prosperity would once again exist in the galaxy.  Even within the state paradigm, the idea that such a broadly centralized government would be effective or beneficial to anyone - besides those in charge of it - is outright silliness.  Still the specter of a galaxy "descending into anarchy and chaos" is invoked numerous times.  

I've got news for everyone: If the societal framework for peaceful coexistence did not already exist, undergirding the law and order provided by the state, then the state could not provide it.  There could never be enough laws or enough lawmen to make order out of a society in chaos.  I could go outside right now, with all our laws and regulations, and throw a brick through my neighbor's window, run back in and probably not get caught.  Even if he saw me, a conviction seems unlikely (and quite expensive at that).  Think about it as you go throughout your day.  What could you get away with if  you were so inclined, and what is the likelihood of getting caught?  If you work at it, I estimate that you could come up with a dozen or so petty, low risk crimes.  Extrapolate by millions and imagine the disorder and chaos that would be far beyond the law's powers to contain.  Now ask yourself why you do not do these things; I suggest by the way, that you do not.  It cannot simply be a matter of economic incentives.  Your neighbor's TV is pretty sweet, and you have seen where he hides his key and know what time he leaves and comes home.  You do not steal his TV because of your own moral rules, whether you derive them from God, nature or otherwise. 

These are the rules that 98% of us agree on 98% of the time and that hold our world together whether there is a state or not.  So let's put an end to the rhetorical nonsense of anarchy equating to chaos and pause for a moment to appreciate how internal rules for proper conduct on an individual and family level provide an extended order for peaceful civilization without the aid of a ruling class. 

Government Paternalism - An Inverted Analogy

Cries of government paternalism are common to the point of cliché.  As well founded as I think these outpourings are - I have referred to the issue as helicopter government - I think the analogy of the government as parents is not as appropriate as the analogy of government as children.  Consider the following similarities:

  • With rare exception they are incapable of generating revenue beyond a regular allowance or a hand-out.  Thus they are dependent on their parents or their taxpayers respectively.  
  • They have very short memories, attention spans and time horizons.  They flit from crisis to crisis without resolution, they make promises they have no intention of keeping, and any plan beyond four years might as well be ignored. 
  • They are incapable of grasping the appropriate price of even the most common household items.  We've all heard children quote ridiculous prices for everyday items, and similarly, few have been able to escape tales of government excess in the purchase of common tools
  • They are prone to throwing tantrums, getting in squabbles and exaggerating small problems in order to get the attention of their parents/voters/breadwinners.  Consider the relatively low risks of such hyper-inflated issues as gun violence, bullying, global warming, global cooling, and genetically modified foods.    
Now don't be afraid to correct your friends and family when they refer to our paternalistic leaders in government.  Feel free to discuss the childlike nature of our state and federal dependents within the context of everyday conversation.  Your coworkers will love you for it*.


*Results not typical.  

What if the Federal Government Ended?

What if the federal government of the united States shut down and came to an end?  I'm not advocating or talking about a violent overthrow by any entity foreign or domestic.  This shouldn't even be interpreted as a protest, just a hypothetical.  What if the leaders just said, "We're tired of everyone begging goodies from us on one hand and their unwillingness to pay with the other.  We've come to the 'Fiscal Cliff' and have reached no final, lasting resolution.  Forget it, we're packing up, going home and getting jobs.  This is isn't a temporary shut down while we point fingers across the isle like you've seen before.  Mom and Dad aren't fighting; we're shrugging and splitting up."

Would their be any jobs?  Would we be safe?  Could we trust our doctors, our food supply, our clean air and water, our banks and our employers?  What about the states; are they up to the challenge of managing our safety and security?

More on Mandatory Blood Donation

As faithful readers and people who exerted the effort to look directly to the left to see "Popular Posts" already know, one of my greatest hits is a post on mandatory blood donation.  It is of course an absurdity to stand for individual freedom and also advocate for mandatory blood donation, but is it really the worst thing a citizen of the united States might be subjected to?  Consider this:

  • If you are a male over the age of 18, you have probably registered for the selective service.  As I write this, you are in no danger of being drafted, i.e. forced into slavery and subjected to mortal danger during war time.  I cannot speak for the future.  From the website of the selective service "In a crisis requiring a draft, men would be called in sequence determined by random lottery number and year of birth."  This brings a whole new meaning to the word "service". Sears' call center isn't looking so bad now. 
  • If you work for a living in sectors of the economy visible to the eyes of the law, somewhere on the order of one-third to one-half of all of your earnings are taken by one government or another.  Now of course, you may receive some benefits and services as a result, but nevertheless, your payments are not truly voluntary, contrary to the assertions of Harry Reid
To me, a pint of blood here or there pales in comparison to risking my life and having a large chuck of my earnings taken before touching my bank account.   So why don't they do it?  It makes so much sense; most people could spare the blood, especially the young and healthy who benefit so much from the system of law and order created single-handedly by government.

They don't do it, because the force in the process is too obvious.  Evan an idiot like Harry Reid cannot fail to see the needle in the arm, even though he seems oblivious to the gun in the room. 

Bastiat on the Fiscal Cliff

 The following excerpt from Bastiat illustrates the predicament of the current regime more eloquently than I can, and he died over 150 years ago.  After 60 years of promising everything under the sun in order to gain power, they are embarrassed, or at least they should be, to admit that they have no money.  This is the so called Fiscal Cliff:

The hundred thousand mouths of the press and of the speaker’s platform cry out all at once:
“Organize labor and workmen.”
 “Do away with greed.”
 “Repress insolence and the tyranny of capital.”
“Experiment with manure and eggs.”
“Cover the country with railways.”
“Irrigate the plains.”
“Plant the hills.”
“Make model farms.”
“Found social laboratories.”
“Colonize Algeria.”
“Nourish children.”
“Educate the youth.”
“Assist the aged.”
“Send the inhabitants of towns into the country.”
“Equalize the profits of all trades.”
“Lend money without interest to all who wish to borrow.”
“Emancipate Italy, Poland, and Hungary.”
“Rear and perfect the saddle-horse.”
“Encourage the arts, and provide us with musicians and dancers.”
“Restrict commerce, and at the same time create a merchant navy.”
“Discover truth, and put a grain of reason into our heads. The mission of Government is to enlighten, to develop, to extend, to fortify, to spiritualize, and to sanctify the soul of the people.”

... And the people believe, and the people hope, and the people make a revolution! No sooner are their friends at the head of affairs, than they are called upon to redeem their pledge. “Give us work, bread, assistance, credit, education, colonies,” say the people; “and at the same time protect us, as you promised, from the taxes.”

The Productive, Peaceful Sector and the Nonproductive, Violent Sector

The words we use to delineate between the portions of our world run by governments (public) and everything else (private) strike me as nebulous and inadequate.  The "private sector" sounds shadowy and secretive, and the "public sector" sounds the opposite-open, visible and cooperative.  But it isn't so.  Ask yourself if you feel more cooperative with Walmart or with the IRS.  Think of all the classified information, protected from your eyes for your own benefit, and of the secret mission carried out in your name.

No, "public" and "private" just won't do.

How about this: the "productive sector" and the "nonproductive sector"?  Admittedly, the "nonproductive sector" is a little cumbersome, so we may want to consider variants in wording, but you get the idea.  Some would argue that the government and its agents, public-private partnerships (yuck!) and the like, occasionally produce goods and services people want, to which I would argue, "not without forcibly creating monopolies for themselves."  Be that as it may, it is prudent to search for better, more universally accepted alternatives.


Which leads me to the distinction that I think is incontrovertible: the "peaceful sector" and the "violent sector".  The unifying principle of government is force, and I feel that the nomenclature should reflect it.  If you don't believe me, try starting a government of your own without the use of weapons.  When you fail, open a bakery or a lemonade stand and give something back to the community.


I don’t mean that a business politician won’t steal; stealing is his business. But all politicians are nonproductive. The only commodity any politician has to offer is jawbone. -- Lazarus Long

What is My Vote Worth?

It has become in vogue within libertarian/anarcho-capitalist circles to proclaim that one's vote does not matter or is of no value because of the historical improbability of any individual vote determining the outcome.  However, when determining whether or not to vote and for whom, one needs to evaluate this position a little bit more deeply.  The prospective voter must consider, "What is my vote worth?" 

The value of one's vote is subjective, so the answer to this question depends on the reference frame one takes in evaluating it.  From the perspective of the outcome of local, state and federal government election results, your vote is statistically meaningless in all but very rare (usually local) circumstances.  So the point is well taken that if your only goal is effecting the make up of government, you are money and time ahead to stay home on election day.  However, when viewed from the perspective of the individual, the value of a vote takes on an entirely new dimension much greater than the spitting-in-the-ocean effect on the election outcome.  To me, voting is an opportunity to express my opinion - usually dissatisfaction with the dominant parties and the political system in general.  This election I will be casting my vote for Gary Johnson because he represents a radical improvement over past administrations and the republican and democratic nominees.  I know little of local politics, so I may just write in obscenities.  I like Ben Dover's position on the tough issues.  This may be blasphemy for the statist, but it makes the trip worthwhile for me.

Related Post:  The Not So Fundamental Right to Vote     

Wonks and Derivative Issues

Jeffrey Tucker, in an article published at mises.org, introduced a dichotomous classification of political philosophies.  He divided those who are politically active into two camps: geeks and wonks.
...Political wonks are fascinated by process. They love the game. They get as much satisfaction from observing as changing. They want to be players above all else. Ideals bore them. History is mere data. Intellectuals seem irrelevant. What matters to the wonk are the hard realities of the ongoing political struggle. They defer to title and rank. They thrive on meetings, small victories, administrative details, and gossip about these matters. Knowing who is who and what is what is the very pith of life.

There are political wonks and policy wonks. They exist on all levels of society. They appear to be running things, because their aim is to control the levers of power in just the right and strategic way, which means in a way that benefits the other wonks of their tribe. Geographically, life begins and ends in the beltway. They thrive on keeping information private and cartelizing their class. Their newspaper is the Washington Post, which they consider to be the insider report.

In contrast to this are the policy geeks. They are no less fascinated by detail but are drawn to ideals. Observation alone bores them. They are drawn to the prospect of change. They don't want to be players as such; they question the very rules of the game and want to change them. They are happy to make a difference in the ideological infrastructure, whether big or small. They tend to work alone and totally disregard caste distinctions. They are interested not in the surface area but what's underneath, not the veneer but the wood. In software terms, they are forever looking forward to the next build. They are risk takers, so they prefer to debug after the system is live....
I rather enjoyed Mr. Tucker's article and, of course, find myself firmly in the camp of political geek.  I despise the wonk outlook, which is probably why I struggle to watch television during election season.  They are consumed with what I consider derivative issues - ones that are related to secondary matters not fundamental principles.  The wonks are chattering:

  • Who prepped Obama for the first debate (if anyone)?  Maybe his poor showing was due to the altitude.  
  • How is the race shaping up in the battleground states?
  • How was Obama's performance in the second debate?  Let's fact check the tid bits - and oh - here are the top 10 sound bites
  • How about a comparison of the candidate's pensions and some sexual innuendo? 
  • For the love of God, can someone please tell me where Obama is going to hold his election night rally?!

The most egregious manifestation of the wonk obsession with derived issues is the person who votes dependent on whether or not a candidate is "electable" (most often in reference to a third party candidate like Gary Johnson or a primary election long-shot like Ron Paul).  How circular is that?  Prepare to have your mind blown: perhaps these candidates would be more electable if more people voted their principles and fewer watched the polls. 

It's not just that I want to hear a higher percentage of principled debate (Is it right to tax the rich more than the poor? When and how should we deploy armies overseas? What is the government's role in child rearing? etc.).  I want to her only these things.  Tell us the principles of the candidates, what there goals are in office, how they view the role of the state, then let's skip to celebrity DUIs and let the chads fall where they may. 




The Not So Fundamental Right to Vote

It's time to elect the "leader of the free world" again.  How wonderfully contradictory by the way.  Everywhere you look there are proclamations that you need to get out there, exercise your fundamental right and vote.  After all, I learned in High School government class that if you don't vote you can't complain about the political system.  We cheer when nations around the world hold their first elections - finally liberty and justice for all!  We've rallied to war under the battle cry of "making the world safe for democracy."  People just have to be able to vote.  Anything less would be uncivilized.  Our own nation's past with respect to the right to vote is anything but perfect.  At one point only property owning white males could vote, but over time we have seen the light and opened it up every adult.  Occasionally, there will be an uproar over attempts to restrict voting only to those with identification, and it makes for exciting news stories.

Now I take no umbrage with everyone having the privilege to vote, but I can no longer stomach the cognitive dissonance required to embrace voting as the be-all and end-all of human rights.  For instance, while we have been arguing over which individuals should have the opportunity to have zero influence over the make up of government by voting, we have had military conscription.  Now to be fair we don't currently have the draft, but there are politicians who salivate at reinstating it in one form or another.

What good is the right to choose your masters without the right to your own life?



Ben Swann - Reality Check: Is This The End of the Petro-dollar?

It's refreshing to see someone in the media discussing real issues like the petro-dollar.  Hats off to Ben Swann and bonus points for not mentioning Big Bird.  I am far from an expert in the history and economics of the petro-dollar concept, so please provide any viewpoints in the comments section.


How to Argue with Liberals, Progressives and Other Leftists - The Central Tenet of Statism

The key to rhetorically dominating any flawed ideology is in attacking its basis, which is naturally usually mistaken.  The root of leftist, progressive, social democratic and other euphemistic variants of socialist/statist thought is the idea that people basically suck.  It goes like this.

People suck so:

  • They will not educate their own children up to our standards.  We must take their money and their children and educate them ourselves.  
  • They will not help each other, especially rich people who look down on the helpless poor masses.  We must take a portion of everyone's money, especially the rich because they won't miss it, and give it to people who can't support themselves.  Anyone who considers this thievery doesn't care about the poor.  
  • They are unscrupulous and will rampantly profit off of the ignorance of consumers by selling them defective, dangerous products.  We must wield the long arm of the law to regulate the production and marketing of practically every product in every market to protect the poor, stupid masses.  
  • They are easily conned and too ignorant and lazy to look out for their own interests.  See above.  
  • They will destroy their minds and bodies with drugs, alcohol and unhealthy food if left to their own discretion.  Some drugs are just too dangerous to be in the presence of these poorly programmed automatons; they must be banned.  Other drugs, such as alcohol, must be tightly controlled and highly taxed to prevent the breakdown of society.  The amount of salt, saturated fat, sugar and other nasty ingredients in the commoner's diet must be managed by law if possible.  If we fail in that, we can take their money and educate them on the matter.       

Granted, few people I know would ever justify their world view by bluntly stating that people suck, though I can recall at least one who has.  Somehow the premise for these ideologies is generally given as a love or respect for people, but I fail to see the logic behind loving and respecting humans so much as to advocate for their control, in whole or in part. 

Of course the human condition is more complicated than "people suck" vs. "people don't suck".  I tend to the believe the latter more often than not, though I try to shy away from such banal generalities.  

Individuals have a variety of skills, aptitudes and ambitions.  They interact, exchange, improve and decline in unpredictable and fascinating ways.  People, even at the "lowest" rungs of society, think and act with volition; there is no such mass of poor, starving automatons who need to have their lives planned for them.  There are people like you and me who want to be free from coercion.  Even those who do not recognize this just and moral sentiment of human interaction should be granted the privilege.  If you care so much for your common man but fear that the remainder of society is too evil or inept to help of their own accord, please volunteer your own resources to the cause before advocating codified force against your neighbor.


Stossel: NASA Brought us CAT Scans?

Anyone who knows me could guess that my DVR is full of Stossel episodes.  I think the man and his crew are doing an excellent job distributing the ideas of individual liberty and freedom into the mainstream.  I was surprised this weekend, however, to hear him attribute the invention of the CAT scan to NASA.  This is not in line with the origin story I have heard, so I did a little bit of research.  Now this should not be taken as an attempt to scoop Stossel, as it is one of my favorite shows.  Rather, I am chasing down what I see as a theme of attributing to NASA the full-scale development of any project with which it was associated.

I did a little bit of very superficial research which confirmed what I had heard about the origin of the CAT scanner.  The first commercial machine was developed by Sir Godfrey Hounsfield in the UK, at EMI Central Research Laboratories, the very same company which held the record label for The Beatles.  The popular tale says that it was the success of The Beatles that helped fund the research lab which led to the development of the CT, but of course, this is difficult to confirm.  The invention of the scanner was preceded by a series of advancements and discoveries in x-ray technology, imaging and mathematics dating back to the early 1900's.  In my brief research, I found very little specific attribution to NASA except a few statements on NASA-related websites indicating that image processing technology developed for the Apollo program is used in modern CT imaging.  No doubt the program deserves credit for advancements made under its many programs.  Clearly there have been several that have had considerable, positive impact on human life.  However it is not fair to, as is commonly done, attribute recognition in toto for the development of a technology in which the program played only a bit part.  This only serves the fuel the drumbeat for greater government funding of research and development, a task better left to the market as I have discussed in detail previously.


And so, every time we object to a thing being done by Government, it concludes that we object to its being done at all. We disapprove of education by the State—then we are against education altogether. We object to a State religion—then we would have no religion at all. We object to an equality which is brought about by the State then we are against equality, etc., etc. They might as well accuse us of wishing men not to eat, because we object to the cultivation of corn by the State. -- Frederic Bastiat

Breaking News: Studies Prove Studies Unreliable

I don't generally appeal to a broad audience or allow my profession to leak into my writing, but my following very modest proposal should appeal to most level-headed people.  Further, I think you will find it useful if you fall anywhere in one or more of the following debate categories:

  • Skeptics vs. Mystics
  • Republicans vs. Democrats vs. Libertarians
  • Economists vs. Other Economists vs. Laymen
  • Gun Control Advocates vs. Gun Rights Advocates
  • Modern Medicine Practitioners vs. Alternative Medicine Gurus

Let's all agree to stop saying phrases of the type, "Studies prove 'X', 'Y', or 'Z'."  (I'm looking at you journalists.)  More than likely the study being cited doesn't "prove" anything, and if history is any guide, the study is more than likely to later be refuted, indicating that either it or the subsequent study(s) is(are) incorrect.  Consider the following intriguing research from the medical field:  
In the interest of full disclosure, I was introduced to the preceding work by the book Wrong:  Why Experts Keep Failing Us...And How to Know When Not to Trust Them, which I highly recommend.

Bottom Line:
I propose the following alternative phrasing, "Studies provide evidence for 'X', 'Y', or 'Z'."

Inductive arguments can never be proven in the way that deductive arguments are.  Thus we can never have the certainty regarding the efficacy of homeopathic remedies, gun control laws, minimum wage restrictions or the teachings of Zoroastrianism that we can about Euclidean geometry.  So let's stop pretending.  I know it's a small change, but maybe this way fewer middle aged house wives will be sucked into the latest supplement craze (green coffee bean extract?).


Any priest or shaman must be presumed guilty until proved innocent. -- Robert Heinlein, Time Enough for Love  


Heinlein Foreshadowed Cash for Clunkers

In a brilliant scene from Heinlein's classic The Door into Summer, written in 1957, the main character seems to channel Bastiat himself when confronted in a futuristic world with a government program essentially the same as Cash for Clunkers.  The main character goes on a long sleep in 1970 and awakes in 2000.  His first steady job upon waking is crushing new, unsold cars.  This is the conversation he has with a coworker upon his first day of work:
“It’s a simple matter of economics, son. These are surplus cars the government has accepted as security against price-support loans. They’re two years old now and they can never be sold...so the government junks them and sells them back to the steel industry. You can’t run a blast furnace just on ore; you have to have scrap iron as well. You ought to know that even if you are a Sleeper. Matter of fact, with high-grade ore so scarce, there’s more and more demand for scrap. The steel industry needs these cars.”  
“But why build them in the first place if they can’t be sold? It seems wasteful." 
“It just seems wasteful.  You want to throw people out of work? You want to run down the standard of living?” 
“Well, why not ship them abroad? It seems to me they could get more for them on the open market abroad than they are worth as scrap.”  
“What!—and ruin the export market? Besides, if we started dumping cars abroad we’d get everybody sore at us—Japan, France, Germany, Great Asia, everybody. What are you aiming to do? Start a war?” He sighed and went on in a fatherly tone. “You go down to the public library and draw out some books. You don’t have any right to opinions on these things until you know something about them.”
Sound at all like the familiar parable of the broken window?  There truly is nothing new under the sun.

Mandatory Blood Donation

I gave blood yesterday...no, no, thank you, please hold your applause...Anyway I gave blood yesterday and got to thinking, perhaps due to lack of blood flow to my brain, how grand it would be if everyone who was able donate blood on a regular basis or even just gave it a shot.  It's really not difficult or unpleasant.  I mean I am a particularly weak individual, and I have never had any trouble during or after donation.  Maybe the government should require all able-bodied citizens above a certain age to regularly be screened for blood donation eligibility, and if they pass the criteria, be compelled to "donate" a pint under penalty of law.  Maybe a simple tax on anyone who didn't show up for screening and a stiffer one for anyone who passed screening and didn't submit to the needle.  You would probably want to impose a stiffer penalty (tax, I meant tax, sorry) on anyone who willfully made themselves ineligible through international travel, living in the UK for a period exceeding 5 years, having sex for money, sharing an apartment with someone who has hepatitis etc.  Based on recent precedent, this should all be quite constitutional in the US.

Just think of the potential savings, not just in lives, but more importantly, in the federal budget.  I'm no medical expert, but it should be fairly straight forward to come up with a figure spelling out the cost savings for Mr. John Q. Taxpayer due to the ready access to compatible blood in the ER, since he is paying for so many of those visits for the uninsured and the insurance for the insured (Author's Note:  remind me to draft a plan on an O negative blood type breeding program).  Further, think of all the money it will save the blood banks.  If everyone is forced (sorry, incentivized) to give blood, they can stop calling me three times a day and asking me to donate.

More thoughts on the subject - More on Mandatory Blood Donation
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