Showing posts with label Science. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Science. Show all posts

Who Stopped Dreaming?

YouTube has gotten very good at suggesting videos that I will like, and it has gotten just as good at suggesting videos that will really get me torqued.  Case in point: this video of Neil deGrasse Tyson on the Bill Maher show (sounds like the perfect storm for trouble right?).  Dr. Tyson is livid, as usual, that not enough money is being extorted from the American public to fund his pet projects.  He compares the magnitude of money confiscated for NASA's budget to the amount confiscated for TARP and the various wars, as if two or more wrongs make a right.

I've written fairly extensively on the subject of NASA funding (and the funding of state science in general), so I think I will let Murray Rothbard take this one:
How shall we finance our future explorations in space? The answer is simple: insofar as space explorations are a byproduct of needed military work (such as guided missiles) and only insofar, let the space exploration proceed on the same basis as any other military research. But, to the extent that it is not needed by the military, and is simply a romantic penchant for space exploration, then this penchant must take its chances, like everything, in the free market. It may seem exciting to engage in space exploration, but it is also enormously expensive, and wasteful of resources that could go into needed products to advance life on this earth. To the extent that voluntary funds are used in such endeavors, all well and good; but to tax private funds to engage in such ventures would be just another giant government boondoggle.

Robots and the Non Aggression Principle

Robots and the Non Agression Principle
It seems that any science fiction involving sufficiently advanced robots usually includes some element of struggle between them and their human creators.  Is this just a useful plot device, or is their really an inherent danger in creating powerful, rugged, autonomous beings?  Perhaps the behavioral framework within which we have been considering robots is flawed.  Maybe the solution would be treating robots the same way we treat humans (or at least the way we ought to).  Consider the most well-known rules for programming well behaved robots. 

Isaac Asimov defined the Three Laws of Robotics as follows:
  1. A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.
  2. A robot must obey the orders given to it by human beings, except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.
  3. A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Laws.
Those seem like pretty good laws, right?  They're pretty airtight.  But, what if we tried something a little bit different?  What if we paused for a moment and decided to program our robots to obey the Non-aggression Principle, the axiom that one shall not initiate the use of force against other persons or their property.  This is a fundamentally different way of treating robots that transcends Asimov's master/slave-relationship-based rules.

I think this is great fodder for any budding libertarian-sympathizing science fiction writers out there.  What would be different? What are the potential pitfalls, and what are the potential benefits of programing robots to be actually autonomous?  Not just autonomous slaves, but nonviolent, nonsubservient, synthetic beings.  Why can't the rules that govern human action also govern the action of artificially intelligent beings? 

In the Long Run We're All Ill-defined

John Maynard Keynes - In the long run, we're all dead
Admittedly I'm no expert in details of modern macroeconomic theory, but one thing that has bothered me since the beginning of that course in college is the concept of the long and the short run.  They seem so varyingly and broadly defined to me as to be relatively useless.  To me this is exemplified in the oft-quoted evasion by the famous John Maynard Keynes, "In the long run, we are all dead."

The one important point I do recall about the subject is the admonition that correlation X and law Y apply only in the short run.  As well as I recall, this stipulation applied to every quantitative concept that we learned.

If one were to take the pragmatic position for central planning based on macroeconomic models, wouldn't one need to answer to a high degree of certainty this glaring issue?  Isn't the long-term the period we should be interested in for our future and that of our posterity?  Do we know the effects of today's policies on prosperity 5, 10 or 15 years down the line?  Is it mere coincidence that politicians, who are in office for a relatively short period in comparison to the length of a human life, seem serially uninterested in the long-term effects of their "scientifically" guided, short-term machinations?  If pharmaceutical companies relied only on science investigating the immediate effects and side effects of their drugs, would we not cry foul?  Would we not accuse them of confirmation bias?


It is fine by me if someone wishes to invest their wealth based on macroeconomic models.  It may be quite beneficial for them, and I wish them the best.   But, I will not consent to having mine taken to support such lofty and ill-defined goals.  Unfortunately, as a lowly citizen of these states I have no choice in the matter.  

Breaking News: Studies Prove Studies Unreliable

I don't generally appeal to a broad audience or allow my profession to leak into my writing, but my following very modest proposal should appeal to most level-headed people.  Further, I think you will find it useful if you fall anywhere in one or more of the following debate categories:

  • Skeptics vs. Mystics
  • Republicans vs. Democrats vs. Libertarians
  • Economists vs. Other Economists vs. Laymen
  • Gun Control Advocates vs. Gun Rights Advocates
  • Modern Medicine Practitioners vs. Alternative Medicine Gurus

Let's all agree to stop saying phrases of the type, "Studies prove 'X', 'Y', or 'Z'."  (I'm looking at you journalists.)  More than likely the study being cited doesn't "prove" anything, and if history is any guide, the study is more than likely to later be refuted, indicating that either it or the subsequent study(s) is(are) incorrect.  Consider the following intriguing research from the medical field:  
In the interest of full disclosure, I was introduced to the preceding work by the book Wrong:  Why Experts Keep Failing Us...And How to Know When Not to Trust Them, which I highly recommend.

Bottom Line:
I propose the following alternative phrasing, "Studies provide evidence for 'X', 'Y', or 'Z'."

Inductive arguments can never be proven in the way that deductive arguments are.  Thus we can never have the certainty regarding the efficacy of homeopathic remedies, gun control laws, minimum wage restrictions or the teachings of Zoroastrianism that we can about Euclidean geometry.  So let's stop pretending.  I know it's a small change, but maybe this way fewer middle aged house wives will be sucked into the latest supplement craze (green coffee bean extract?).


Any priest or shaman must be presumed guilty until proved innocent. -- Robert Heinlein, Time Enough for Love  


Pennies for Flying Cars - Another Tale of the Unseen

Wouldn't it be great if I drove a flying Mercedes-Benz?  I certainly think so!  Wouldn't it be great if everyone else did too?  No doubt.  Of course we would need to nationalize a major car company, but I don't anticipate any obstacles there.

How much would you pay for the universe (of flying cars)?  How do we examine the costs and benefits?

Besides the mere fact that everyone would be flying in style with little concern for congestion, just think of all the stimulative effects it would have on society.  We would probably all save a bunch of time going to and from work.  The ability to fly would eliminate many of the complexities associated with driving and would probably facilitate automating the process.  This would free us from the drudgery of the daily commute and essentially make the world smaller, expanding our zone of employment and improving our earning power.  Besides all that, I certainly would feel better about myself and my status, being a hot-rod pilot and all.  I would probably start dressing better, and maybe I would have the esteem to go for that big promotion at work.  Multiply that by millions of people so effected and imagine the economy purring along like a spoiled kitten.  Children everywhere would be inspired by the wonder of daily flight, as well as the precise engineering, the smooth handling and the attractive contouring that go along with the now ubiquitous, flying Mercedes-Benz.  Just imagine the young crop of overachieving engineers, scientists, designers and artists growing up and really getting after it in an ever expanding world of opportunity!  Beyond all of that, we're bound to happen upon a great many wealth-producing discoveries and labor-saving inventions in our quest to mass produce flying cars.  We can't afford to let go of this dream!  People probably won't go for it voluntarily, so we'll probably need the government to foot the bill.

Foolish, childish ideas and hyperbolic extrapolations?  Absolutely.  No one would ever seriously propose such an expensive, narrow-minded, centrally-planned "national greatness" program simply on the grounds that it would be inspirational or generally stimulative.  First of all, to attribute the life decisions and successes of any individual in an advanced society (let alone that of a group of such individuals) to a single program, stimulus or event is utter foolishness.  Further, to claim that directing that desire toward a particular field in lieu of all others is an improvement on the situation of men is a fatal conceit indeed.  Inspiring a young Sam Walton to design thrusters for the new F-Class would have deprived us of Walmart, which would have been an injustice nearly beyond this author's will to consider.

The rationalization of the program based on the stimulative effects of inventions made in the process is a particularly special pleading based on ignoring the costs of the program itself.  Of course the monetary price we would pay for the program is obvious, but the activities forgone in order to support it will forever be hidden to us.  I am not speaking here of what other great national work must be given up, like the Federal Jetpack Program, though that is a viable concern.  I am considering what activities in the private (or peaceful) market place must be displaced in order to make the flying car dream a reality.  It takes real saved wealth to pull off a project like this, and since the government has none, they'll have to take it away from someone (more likely a whole bunch of someones).  Your guess is as bad as mine as to what that saved wealth would have been used for.  Some of it no doubt would have been saved for consumption at a later date, while some of it would have been consumed right away on things like candy, shirts, smart phones and regular, old-fashioned rolling cars.  So that's simple enough; we're just asking for little Johnny to go without his chocolate for the week, or little Susan to cut back on the texts or 16 year-old Franklin's parents to go for the fixer upper instead of certified pre-owned.  That's not so much to ask of the patriotic citizen for the common dream of flying cars.  If you buy that argument, I guess this is where we go our separate ways, but there is one last thing I would like you to consider - investment.  Some of that wealth would have been invested in a broad array of forward-looking ventures, most of which probably would have had a better chance of turning a profit than the lofty dream of flying luxury cars.  Some, no doubt, would have been massive failures that were either poorly managed or not well thought out or both, but if history is any guide, a great many of them would have been successful, some of them fantastically so.  There would have been some AOL-TimeWarner's and some Betamax's, but there would also be the Amazon's and the Apple's.  Maybe we would be missing out on the next Iphone, Ipad, or hell, the Icar (not flying til generation 4.f).  Maybe Bayer would have cancelled a line or research on some young drug that would have turned out to cure cancer, or AIDS, or diabetes.  Maybe Pfizer pulled back on the next great erection enhancer.  Maybe Kenmore's new dishwasher would have saved us more time at less expense than the flying 'Benz.  The fact is, we'll never know the costs of the great flying machine project because they are simply immeasurable.  So you tell me if you can justify taking your neighbor's wealth by force to support this or any other technological fantasy.

In my previous post on the subject of Penny4NASA, I focused on the fiscal irresponsibility of clamoring for increased NASA funding.  Now I hope I have demonstrated the fallacious nature of the arguments used to present the supposed benefits of increased funding for the program as expounded on said website:

NASA contributes to society in massively huge ways in terms of technological, economical, and inspirational progress. The progress that we have seen in the last 40 years comes largely from the world's extremely talented scientists and engineers. Now, talk to most any scientist and/or engineer of the last 40 years, and we are willing to bet that they were drawn into their chosen field by something NASA related. And more often then not, they refer to the Apollo, Gemini and/or Space Shuttle program where humans were physically advancing a frontier. It's the human spirit of exploration that drives the world's greatest technologists to invent the future, today. We want to see to it that the US annual budget allocation for NASA reflects that hugely important role technology, economy, and inspiration bringer.

I hope my work can be a massively huge inspiration bringer to young thinkers everywhere so that they can root out the legal plunder of the future, today.


Related Posts:
Pennies for NASA - Ignoring Cost at all Cost



Pennies for NASA - Ignoring the Cost at All Cost

I consider myself a skeptic.  I try to live my life by reason, guide my choices by science and defend my positions without faith.  However, my political philosophy, which I think is rationally derived and is deeply rooted in individual liberty, often clashes with the leftist/statist strain within skeptical society.  This was so exposed on my drive to work this morning as I listened to one of my regular podcasts.   
I think it is relatively clear that the federal government of the united States is in a dire fiscal situation, along with much of the developed world. In spite of this fact, there is a segment of the population clamoring for an approximate doubling of the budget for NASA under the cleverly misleading moniker "Penny4NASA". The gist of their platform is described at the head of their homepage:
NASA’s budget currently represents 0.5% of the US budget, and has been relatively unchanged for 25 years. We are calling for their budget to be increased to 1% of the US budget.
The site contains some links and videos intended to educate the public and gin up support for one of the most universally beloved government programs in history. One of the videos contains the following quote from Neil degrasse Tyson, a widely respected, highly adored and well spoken astrophysicist:

...I’m tired of saying this, but I’m gonna have to say it again, the NASA budget is four-tenths of one penny on a tax dollar. If I held up the tax dollar, and I cut horizontally into it, four-tenths of one percent on a tax dollar does not even get you into the ink! So I will not accept a statement that says, “We can’t afford it!”’


I hate to be the bearer of bad news to Dr. Tyson, but "we" can not even afford to keep NASA's budget the same in our current condition, let alone increase it by any fraction of a penny on the dollar.  "We" are massively in debt beyond what the rosiest predictions indicate "we" will be able to pay back, and the government's ability to paper (literally) over this fact will come to an end sooner or later.  If your definition of "afford" is, "having access to credit without any demonstrable means of sufficient repayment of this or any other debt", then you may think that I am crazy for saying this.  

Granted, the NASA budget is small potatoes compared to the entitlement/warfare/never-ending-stimulus spending nightmare we are in, but that does not mean it can be ignored.  

Ignoring the cost of the program is explicit in the Penny4NASA platform.  At first blush one might think that they are advocating for everyone to give (or rather have taken from them) a penny to support NASA.  That might sound ok, but wait a minute!  They are talking about a penny of every "tax dollar"!  That's a little bit different, especially since most people don't even know how much they pay in federal taxes.  Go ahead and calculate it if you would like; I'll wait here and hold my breath.  Just don't forget to include paycheck withholdings along with the lump sum you might send the IRS in April (ignore any interest you might have earned on the  withholdings just to safe).  While you're at it include payroll taxes that your employer pays that he or she might otherwise have paid you, tariffs and customs duties on all the goods you purchased that were imported or contained components that were imported, estate and gift taxes etc.  It's a little bit more than a penny now isn't it?  It gets better.  The call to action is to raise the funding of NASA from 0.46% of the federal annual BUDGET to 1% of the federal annual BUDGET.  If you just calculated your annual federal taxes based on Dr. Tyson's allegory to the "tax dollar", you calculated your contribution to federal REVENUE.  Do you want to make any guesses as to how that stacks up against the federal  BUDGET?  Not well!  According to The Hill, "CBO has predicted that in 2012, the U.S. will have its fourth consecutive year with a budget deficit over $1 trillion."  I cannot begin to tell you how to calculate your projected increase in "contributions" required to meet an increased budgetary obligation made by an entity that is serially delinquent with its bills, but my guess is, it's more than a penny.   

To further the case for increasing NASA's funding, the group provides this chart of the NASA budget history:

http://penny4nasa.org/?q=how
Which may be a little bit misleading if you don't understand that total federal spending during the approximate time frame did this:



When you look at NASA budget history in terms of absolute 1996 dollars as in the following graph (orange trace), which I plucked from Wikipedia, the situation for NASA is a little bit less dire.
NASA_budget_linegraph_BH.PNG (786×544)
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/1/1a/NASA_budget_linegraph_BH.PNG

There are way more problems with this movement to forcibly take your money for great works of national pride, but I have a day job.  So, I will be back for more later.


Related Post:

Pennies for Flying Cars - Another Tale of the Unseen



An elephant: A mouse built to government specifications. -- Robert Heinlein, Time Enough for Love
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